We’ve been in a down cycle since 2022. That’s no secret. But what’s different now is how many signals left an impression that we were climbing out only to get blindsided by a downturn again.
Back in January, we saw a little life. Spot rates pushed upward, volumes ticked up, and there was hope that just maybe we were on the upswing. Fast forward to April and reality’s hit like a ton of bricks.
Tariffs are putting pressure on imports; the NASDAQ just had its worst single-day performance since May 2020; consumer sentiment is shaky. And right now, all of that is making its way into the freight market in the form of falling rates, declining demand, and minimal leverage for carriers.
Let’s break down where things stand:
Let’s take a minute to unpack this chart right here:
This shows net changes in active trucking authorities — basically, how many new trucking companies got started each week minus how many shut their doors.
When the number is positive, it means more trucks got added to the market. When it’s negative, more carriers exited than came in.
Here’s the problem: We’ve had more weeks adding trucks than losing them, especially over the last 60-90 days. That green number at the top right? It says we gained 203 net new authorities last week. That’s a 32.68% jump from the previous week.
Let that sink in.
We’ve been in a rate environment where many folks can barely cover costs and yet we’re still putting more trucks on the road.
Let me break it down: imagine there’s 100 loads available in your region, and 100 trucks trying to get them. That’s fair odds.
But now imagine next week, 25 more trucks show up — and demand stays the same. Now you’ve got 125 trucks fighting over the same 100 loads. Who wins? The broker. They don’t have to pay more to move freight. They can sit back and wait for someone to bite on a cheap rate, and somebody always will.
That’s what this chart is telling us. Even with rates falling and freight being soft, trucks are still pouring into the market. And if that trend keeps up?
Rates will keep sliding.
There are a few possible reasons:
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Some folks are still chasing a dream off old 2021 TikToks
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Others are fleeing bad lease deals and thinking they’ll do better on their own
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A few are coming in with no real understanding of what it takes to survive in a low-rate environment
But no matter the reason, the result’s the same — more capacity in a soft market = downward pressure on rates.
Spot rates have slid from $2.39 in February to $2.24 as of April 1st. That’s a 15-cent drop in just two months—[see image below].
