A strong shipping market helped secondhand container prices grow to an above-average finish in 2024, but it’s unclear whether that will be sustained heading into the new year.
“With inflationary pressures persisting and central banks maintaining higher interest rates for longer, container owners will face increased total asset costs,” said Christian Roeloffs, co-founder and chief executive of online marketplace Container xChange, in a forecast report. “This inevitably pushes breakeven leasing rates higher and raises costs for container users. Sailing through will require sharper strategies to maintain profitability.”
Uncertainties over geopolitical tensions, trade wars, and tariff threats helped push up prices in late 2024 and are expected to persist into the first quarter of 2025. That implies higher asset costs for container traders, impacting profitability in the short term.
“While global GDP growth is forecasted to remain stable, the risks of overcapacity loom large, especially with strong supply growth in vessels and containers over recent years,” Roeloffs said. “If capacity is released, such as through resumed Red Sea passages, overcapacity could escalate quickly. Container owners will need to adopt agile leasing strategies and seek out profitable niche trades.”
“For container users, staying competitive will demand a continual evaluation of the cost differences between SOC [shipper-owned container] and COC [carrier-owned container, which are rented to shippers] operations.”
The report cited anecdotal information that Chinese manufacturers and wholesalers would flood the U.S. and Canada with used containers owing to huge stockpiles, depressing prices. At the same time, recent increases in steel prices have influenced thinking that container prices are heading upward.
The report observed “notable skepticism” about the implementation of tariffs promised during President Donald Trump’s campaign, which could influence trade.
Taxes on used containers are generally lower than on brand-new units, the report stated, which could shape upcoming strategic decisions by manufacturers and wholesalers.
Container leasing rates are expected to remain “subdued” until mid- to late February as factories in Asia shut down for Lunar New Year.
“Container trading is beginning to slow in China, signaling the usual seasonal lull,” said Arno Lindner, key account manager, Container xChange, in the forecast. “Our customers are noticing that container manufacturers in China have stopped taking new orders, reflecting a cautious approach to production planning.
