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Where Mastercard sees opportunity as U.S. travel craters

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One of the early impacts of President Donald Trump’s tariff policy has been a decline in people traveling to the U.S., a response that reduces some cross-border payments but not all, according to Mastercard.

“What is not coming into the U.S. is going to other regions,” CFO Sachin Mehra said during Thursday’s earnings call.

Foreign travel to the U.S. fell 14% in March, according to the most recent data from the U.S. Travel Association, noting that the drop came before the April 2 tariff announcement. That followed a 2% decline in February, the first such fall since spring 2020 during the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The declines have been attributed to political opposition to Trump’s policies. An April 10-11 survey of Canadians found 60% were “staying away” from the U.S. due to the president’s policies, according to Longwoods International.

During Thursday’s earnings call, Mastercard said its cross-border payments and travel revenue sources are diversified. Like most payment companies, Mastercard said the impact of Trump’s tariffs have not yet affected overall payments. But it did note international travel declines in March and through the first three weeks of April.
Much of that decline has been in U.S.-bound travel, Mastercard said. Other corridors, particularly within Europe, the Middle East and Africa and the Asia Pacific, have grown in recent weeks. The payment company’s overall travel volume has “shown stability,” but there have been shifts within the category, Mehra said.

In a research note before Thursday’s earnings report, Jeffries said inbound U.S. travel is 4% of Mastercard’s net revenue. A decline in inbound travel of 20% — Jeffries’ estimate — would not pose a risk to Mastercard’s second quarter or full year 2025 outlooks but would “keep a lid” on the company’s stock price.

Mastercard has embedded flexibility into its existing 2025 strategy to anticipate economic and political uncertainty, CEO Michael Miebach said during Thursday’s earnings call.


Mastercard also touted its artificial intelligence investments as a way to broaden revenue sources. The card network this week launched Mastercard Agent Pay, a platform that expands Mastercard’s existing generative AI technology, which enhances customer service, security and onboarding by generating automated responses to customers.

Agent Pay digs deeper into the card network’s data and AI tools to help shoppers curate a mix of purchases for an event, assist merchants on supply chain management or help a retailer build a marketing or sales program, Mastercard said. Agent Pay uses agentic AI, or a form of artificial intelligence that aims to reduce or eliminate human supervision.

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