The 25% tariff on imported cars and parts could wipe out up to 3 million vehicle sales, slash automaker profits in half and throw the U.S. auto supply chain into chaos as manufacturers scramble to reconfigure operations in a high-stakes race against time, according to Bank of America.
In a note shared Wednesday, research analyst John P. Babcock said President Donald Trump’s new trade action announced on March 26 would trigger significant demand destruction, higher consumer prices, and a severe blow to profitability, especially if additional parts tariffs are confirmed in May.
How Bad Could It Get For US Auto Sales?
The proposed tariffs—taking effect April 3—apply to all imported cars, light trucks and several critical components, including engines, transmissions, and electrical systems. According to Babcock, the industry response will be higher vehicle prices across the board.
If manufacturers pass along the full 25% tariff to consumers, BofA estimates a sales loss of 3.2 million units at the current trend rate of 16 million vehicles annually — a 20% collapse. A more conservative case, with only 15% of costs passed through, still implies a demand drop of 2.5 million units, or about 15%.
“Affordability has already been a challenge,” Babcock said. “This only exacerbates the situation.”
Can Automakers Reshore Production?
There may be limited relief for automakers with idle U.S. plant capacity.
Bank of America estimates that more than a million vehicle assembly units could be reshored to U.S. factories with minor investments and hiring. General Motors Co. GM and Stellantis NV STLA are best positioned for this pivot.
Yet, labor constraints, weak demand for some U.S.-built models and the logistical complexities of scaling production rapidly remain obstacles.
Over a longer horizon, most automakers could bring production stateside, yet that would require “large capital investments” and likely further tilt the product mix toward higher-end vehicles, leaving a gap in affordable options.
Chinese automakers such as BYD Co. BYDDY, Geely, and Xiaomi could potentially fill that gap if they establish U.S. manufacturing.
What’s The Real Cost Of Parts Tariffs?
While full vehicle reshoring is challenging, the real pain may come from the auto parts tariffs. A final decision is expected by May 3.
Babcock outlined three scenarios: targeted tariffs on powertrain and electronics, blanket tariffs on all auto parts, or a hybrid combination.
If all parts are hit with the 25% tariff, the cost per U.S.-assembled vehicle jumps by $3,285, including $1,065 for powertrain parts, $840 for electronics, and $1,380 for other components.
That alone translates to an average price increase of 8%+, which could either be passed on to consumers or absorbed in profit margins.
In total, the industry faces a $26 billion hit under this scenario, equivalent to “halving all automaker profits in the U.S.,” Babcock said.
Reshoring Auto Parts? Not Likely
While some optimism exists around reshoring vehicle assembly, the parts side tells a different story.
According to Babcock, reshoring auto parts manufacturing is “essentially impossible” due to high U.S. labor costs and a lack of skilled workers.
Unlike vehicle plants that may have idle capacity, parts suppliers have little to no slack in the U.S. system, leaving supply chains exposed and North American production vulnerable to disruptions.
Tariffs on powertrain components may offer a narrow path to incentivize domestic production, but anything broader risks major breakdowns in vehicle manufacturing continuity.
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