(Bloomberg) — Sales of Apple Inc.’s iPhone and its closest rivals are expected to take a significant blow from the Trump administration’s new tariff policy unveiled in April.
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Two independent market research companies have slashed their forecasts for 2025 growth by more than half: IDC now expects just 0.6% growth in global smartphone shipments for the year, while Counterpoint Research sees a 1.9% increase. Both caution that potential price increases and broader macroeconomic uncertainty related to the tariffs will dampen enthusiasm for new purchases.
Smartphones were given a tariff exemption in mid-April, however President Donald Trump this month threatened a 25% levy on imports of smartphones made outside the US. That pressure has dragged Apple’s share price down and contributed to expectations of potential price hikes by the iPhone maker and others.
“The smartphone industry has faced a whirlwind of uncertainty,” said IDC’s Senior Research Director Nabila Popal. “Smartphone vendors — particularly those shipping to the US — must now navigate complex geopolitics alongside ongoing supply chain diversification efforts.”
China’s Huawei Technologies Co. marks a bright spot for Counterpoint’s analysts, who see the Shenzhen-based company having fewer difficulties with sourcing key components this year. Huawei has been reclaiming market share domestically since it started building its own chips, and its prospects for pushing further afield appear to be improving even with the global economy in turmoil.
“Increasing supply chain strength should help them become more aggressive overseas through the long term,” said Counterpoint analyst Ethan Qi.
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