Cryptocurrency bettors sharply upped the odds of a U.S. recession Thursday following President Donald Trump’s worse-than-expected “Liberation Day” tariff rollout.
What happened: The odds in favor of the betting contract titled “US recession in 2025?” shot up from 46% to 54% in the last 24 hours on Polymarket. A week ago, the likelihood of this happening was 38%.
Over $1 million has already been wagered on the outcome on the Polygon POL/USD-based prediction platform. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the National Bureau of Economic Research declares a recession in the U.S. before January 1, 2026.
Alternatively, if the seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP is negative for two consecutive quarters, the condition will be met.
Note that Polymarket is not available to U.S. residents due to regulatory hurdles.
A similar bet on the federally regulated betting platform Kalshi showed odds at 54%, up from a low of 17% in the first quarter.
Why It Matters: The stock market got a hammering Thursday after Trump announced sweeping tariffs, including a universal 10% tariff on all imports starting April 5. Bitcoin BTC/USD, however, held steady during the day.
Financial services giant JPMorgan placed the risk of a U.S. recession at 40%, up from 30%, largely due to Trump’s trade policies.
Influential economist Justin Wolfers also chimed in, stating, “The chance of a 2025 recession have risen enormously. (And pointlessly.)
Image via Shutterstock
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