It’s been a tumultuous ride for Tesla(NASDAQ: TSLA) shareholders lately. Its inimitable chief Elon Musk has been in the news constantly, but for reasons mostly unrelated to Tesla itself. As head of the new Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), Musk has taken aim at the federal bureaucracy, claiming to eliminate what he and the Trump Administration say is waste, fraud, and abuse.
His tenure at the helm of DOGE and his central presence in politics — domestic and foreign — have made him an increasingly polarizing figure. Meanwhile, shares of Tesla have fallen roughly 40% from their high in December as the company struggles to grow sales. Still, Tesla remains a profitable electric vehicle (EV) maker, a leader in autonomous driving and robotics, and its energy storage business is growing rapidly. There are plenty of reasons to remain optimistic.
So, let’s consider: Is Tesla a millionaire-maker?
To be clear, despite its relative youth and its recent struggles, Tesla is among the 10 most profitable car makers in the world. Its net income is comparable to that of major car manufacturers like Honda, General Motors, and Ford, as you can see in the chart below.
While much of the conversation surrounding Tesla focuses on its future potential — a reasonable response given the impressive technologies it has in development — the fact is that its business as it stands today is derived mostly from car sales. Of the $97,690 billion in total sales it reported last year, more than $77,000 billion came from sales of its lineup of EVs.
That is why its slumping car sales are concerning. Despite being considered a growth stock, which usually comes with revenue growth to match, Tesla has delivered sub-4% sales growth in four of the last five quarters.
The trend may be getting worse. Likely driven by Musk’s inflammatory involvement in German and British politics, sales in Europe have dropped precipitously as of late. While overall EV sales across Europe rose 37% year over year in January, Tesla sales dropped 45%. That’s quite a disparity.
Not only has public sentiment toward Musk and Tesla taken a turn for the worse — 73% of Germans say that his involvement in their politics is “unacceptable” — the company is facing increasing competition from both established automakers and newer entrants like China’s BYD Co. The latter, a key competitor of Tesla’s, surpassed Tesla in U.K. sales for the first time ever.
As I mentioned earlier, there are all sorts of plays in the future that could transform the company and greatly expand its business. The leading vision is a global “robotaxi” service enabled by its autonomous driving technology. Musk also sees a future where most households have a Jetsons-esque robot maid.
I freely admit that it’s not apples to apples to compare Tesla’s valuation to rival automakers’. Still, given that these visions of the future are only promises and the vast majority of its revenue comes from selling cars, it’s not unreasonable to do so. This chart illustrates the market’s significant bet on Tesla’s transformation into something it isn’t yet.
Perhaps it’s pretty clear already, but I have serious concerns about Tesla at the moment. It seems to me that the stock has a significant amount of hype built into it and investors have been too forgiving of its anemic sales growth and shrinking margins. A price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) of 142 would be extremely high even for a tech company, let alone a car maker. For comparison, Nvidia, which enjoys a near-stranglehold on the AI chip market, has a P/E of 52.
I cannot recommend Tesla. Perhaps Musk’s vision of the future will come to fruition and I will eat my words, but I certainly would not consider Tesla a millionaire-maker.
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Johnny Rice has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Nvidia and Tesla. The Motley Fool recommends BYD Company and General Motors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
