Oil’s recent descent has prompted Goldman Sachs analysts to lower their price target for the year, in part due to expectations of softer economic growth amid President Trump’s tariff policies.
The firm reduced its December 2025 forecast for Brent crude oil by $5 (BZ=F) to $71 per barrel.
Brent prices have fallen more than 3% year to date. Initiatives by the Trump administration to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine and efforts for a potential nuclear agreement with Iran have eased supply worries. Meanwhile, some economists have cut their growth forecasts amid a string of disappointing data and uncertainty over Trump’s tariff policies.
“The selloff mostly reflects a shift in market focus from downside risk to Russia and Iran supply to softer US GDP growth,” Goldman Sachs’ Daan Struyven wrote.
Struyven and his team expect oil demand will grow less than expected, “incorporating slower US GDP growth on higher tariffs.”
Last week, Trump imposed 25% tariffs on aluminum and steel imports from all countries. The European Union responded with retaliatory levies against the US.
More US tariff plans are expected to be announced in early April.
Goldman Sachs analysts also anticipate higher OPEC+ supply next quarter.
Earlier this month, futures fell after the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) surprised Wall Street by announcing it would bump up production in April as a first step toward unwinding its production cuts.
On Monday, West Texas Intermediate crude futures (CL=F) jumped around 1% to trade above $67 per barrel. Brent also gained roughly 1% to trade above $70.
The gain came after the US indicated it would continue to launch an offensive against Iranian-backed Houthi rebels until their shipping attacks in the Red Sea stopped.
Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre.
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