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Daily Spotlight: Opportunities in the Capital Markets Sector

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Summary

Allocating capital is one of the core competencies of the U.S. economy. That doesn’t mean the industry isn’t cyclical, and the recent period of high rates has been a challenge. Consider the IPO market. The U.S. initial public offering market, which sizzled in 2021 with 1,144 IPOs and a total transaction value of $253 billion, saw a sharp downturn in 2022, with 368 deals raising $20 billion; 2023 wasn’t much better. The IPO market has started to show signs of life, especially in the U.S., where the dollar value of deals in 1Q24 was up 178% from the prior year. We expect IPO activity to improve into 2025, aided by improving equity market valuations, the likelihood of lower interest rates, pent-up demand for IPOs, and the potential for companies in the currently hot artificial intelligence area to seek growth capital. Meanwhile, the asset management and brokerage segment, which suffered from lower stock valuations in 2022, experienced improved valuations throughout 2023 and into this year. That has had a positive impact on earnings results. The financial exchange and data segment has a strong backdrop, with higher trading volumes due to global macro developments leading to volatility across equity, fixed-income, cu

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