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Borderlands Mexico: Trump tariffs could raise consumer prices in short term, expert says

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“There will definitely be an increase in pricing for imported goods, which will push companies to look for alternative suppliers or manufacturing sites,” Matt Lekstutis, director at supply chain consultancy Efficio, said. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)
“There will definitely be an increase in pricing for imported goods, which will push companies to look for alternative suppliers or manufacturing sites,” Matt Lekstutis, director at supply chain consultancy Efficio, said. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

Borderlands is a weekly rundown of developments in the world of United States-Mexico cross-border trucking and trade. This week: Trump tariffs could raise consumer prices in short term, expert says; TransPak expands logistics operation in Texas; Logisticus Group opens supply chain facility near Phoenix; and Grupo Lintel plans $83 million logistics park in central Mexico.

President Donald Trump’s threat to put 25% tariffs on imports from Mexico and Canada could impact everyone from manufacturing companies, transporters, logistics companies to consumers, according to Matt Lekstutis, director at Efficio.

“There will definitely be an increase in pricing for imported goods, which will push companies to look for alternative suppliers or manufacturing sites,” Lekstutis told FreightWaves in an email.

Chicago-based Efficio is a global procurement and supply chain consultancy. The company has offices in Canada and Mexico.

Trump said he would impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from Mexico and Canada, along with an additional 10% tax on imported goods from China, starting Feb. 1.

On Thursday, Trump told global business leaders gathered at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, to manufacture their products in the U.S. or face tariffs.

“Come make your product in America, and we will give you among the lowest taxes of any nation on Earth,” Trump said, speaking live from the White House. “But if you don’t make your product in America, which is your prerogative, then, very simply, you will have to pay a tariff.”

However, tariffs are taxes that are paid by businesses — not other countries — when foreign-made goods arrive at the U.S. border.

According to the nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), tariffs raise prices on foreign made goods, which increases the costs of goods for consumers.

“Overall, using standard economic methods, we find that the full incidence of the tariff falls on domestic consumers,” NBER said in a 2019 study titled “The Impact of the 2018 Trade War on U.S. Prices and Welfare.” “We also see similar patterns for foreign countries who have retaliated against the U.S., which indicates that the trade war also reduced real income for other countries.”

According to the nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research, tariffs raise prices on foreign made goods, which increases the costs of goods for consumers. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)
According to the nonprofit National Bureau of Economic Research, tariffs raise prices on foreign made goods, which increases the costs of goods for consumers. (Photo: Jim Allen/FreightWaves)

Lekstutis said Trump’s tariff policies could bring manufacturing jobs back to the United States, but not immediately.

“I do believe the tariffs will bring back manufacturing jobs to the states. However, there are a few complexities to consider — the increase in taxes will push companies to reevaluate their need to automate their processes and manufacturing roles,” Lekstutis. “Changing the supply chain network requires time and investments into resources. If this change is being driven by the four year term by President Trump, the companies may not be willing to make that investment.”

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