Salesforce (CRM) is talking down the potential 2025 sales impact of its AI agents after its earnings release.
The software giant’s stock dropped nearly 5% to $292.80 in premarket trading on Thursday after it issued a disappointing earnings outlook for 2025. The company’s ticker page was the second most active on Yahoo Finance behind Nvidia (NVDA) following the AI giant’s own earnings report.
Salesforce stock had run up 16% in the six months prior to the earnings release, thanks to optimism around the financial impact of its artificial intelligence agent platform Agentforce. But disappointing revenue forecasts sparked worries that the tool’s adoption is slowing down.
Salesforce executives told analysts on a post-earnings call that Agentforce — its latest software innovation for businesses — would have a “modest” contribution to revenue this year. A more “meaningful” contribution is forecast for 2026.
Salesforce’s CEO Marc Benioff told me (video above) that the company could deliver upside on its operating margin guidance for this year. Benioff — who is also co-founder and chairman — noted the guidance for Agentforce is prudent, given the company’s recurring revenue model and it being the product’s early days.
“We’ll have a great year,” Benioff said.
Salesforce said it has closed 5,000 Agentforce deals since October, more than 3,000 of which are paid. Annual recurring revenue from data cloud and AI more than doubled year over year.
Here is what Wall Street is saying about Salesforce’s quarter and outlook.
“Salesforce’s much anticipated fourth quarter print delivered quarter over quarter current performance obligation (CRPO) acceleration (ex-FX [foreign exchange]), a bevy of AI disclosures that underscore the early momentum of Agentforce, and healthy 1Q CRPO and fiscal 2026 subscription revenue outlooks relative to expectations.
“While some moving parts related to FX and professional services impacted the overall revenue outlook, we view the after-hours pressure on shares as an overreaction to a quarter/guide that aligned with our positive view of Salesforce’s positioning around agentic AI and its ability to drive sustainable growth with margin/free cash flow expansion.
“Management set modest expectations for Agentforce revenue in fiscal 2026, but suggested that the momentum should pick up throughout the year and position fiscal 2027 as a year of more meaningful benefit. In the meantime, the halo effect of Agentforce is driving momentum across “non-AI” components of the business, and we expect this trend to continue into fiscal 2026.”
Rating: Reiterated Neutral
Price Target: $275, lowered from $307
“Sales can’t force Agentforce adoption. While Salesforce continues to push Agentforce and data cloud adoption, management is assuming only modest contributions in fiscal 2026, in-line with our prior commentary. Fourth quarter top line results were slightly below expectations and the initial fiscal 2026 guidance calls for 7%-8% revenue growth (inclusive of a 0.5% FX headwind), down from 9% in fiscal 2025 as professional service and marketing + commerce cloud headwinds likely offset positive data cloud momentum and ramping AI tailwinds.”
“Salesforce delivered a solid print as CRPO growth 9% and operating margin 33% both matched Street numbers. Fiscal 2026 guidance of 9% constant currency subscription growth and 34% operating margin also hit Street estimates. Guide assumes modest revenue from Agentforce, as momentum builds through the year. We continue to believe Salesforce can deliver double digit percentage top line growth while driving margins higher to the mid/high 30s over time.”
Rating: Reiterated Outperform
Price Target: $420, reiterated
“Not a huge surprise to see a ‘prudent’ guide [guidance] given the imminent CFO transition and between F/X, leap year, and professional services weakness — bears can take a victory lap on the first quarter revenue guide.
“But in general, we think the story remains more or less the same — namely that the key to 2025 for Salesforce is going to be showing accelerating growth over the year, increasing adoption of Agentforce and further upside to the operating margin guide.”
Rating: Reiterated Overweight
Price Target: $380, reiterated
“We maintain our view that Salesforce operates a business model that is bending, but not breaking, even within a challenging macro-economy that has affected all software companies, and we continue to see eventual upside from current levels as the company pivots to an efficiency playbook and balances slower growth with profitability and free cash flow generation while infusing generative AI capabilities into its clouds.
“We view free cash flow per share as the appropriate lens for the company and believe the thesis should remain intact as Salesforce continues to grow, albeit at a slower rate, and show meaningful operating margin expansion, which should be tracked by free cash flow margin over time.”
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Programming note: I will be live with a special Nvidia-themed episode of Yahoo Finance’s Opening Bid podcast today at 8:30 a.m. ET. You can easily watch it with our new “Streaming Now” section on website or on all major streaming platforms. Salesforce is bound to come up, given its own AI computing demands and Marc Benioff’s longtime relationship with Jensen Huang.
Brian Sozzi is Yahoo Finance’s Executive Editor. Follow Sozzi on X @BrianSozzi, Instagram, and LinkedIn. Tips on stories? Email brian.sozzi@yahoofinance.com.
